Original title: Analysis of the development trend of furniture industry in China: the estimated growth rate in the next few years is 15%.
At present, the furniture industry in China has entered a relatively stable growth period, and the growth rate is expected to remain at around 15% in the next few years. The industry is shifting from export to domestic sales; Low-end demand is still huge, but high-end and personalized demand has begun to rise; Some sub-industries tend to be concentrated. We believe that companies with sinking channels and high brand awareness will have advantages in the future. In addition, the growth rate of custom furniture companies will be faster.
The growth rate of furniture industry is becoming more and more stable, and furniture enterprises are transforming the domestic market.
The extensive export-oriented growth has left, and furniture manufacturers have increased the domestic market.
In 2003, the national real estate investment exceeded 1 trillion yuan for the first time, so the furniture industry ushered in the best era. However, the high-speed growth of China’s furniture industry came to an end after the global financial crisis in 2008. Affected by factors such as reduced export demand, rising raw material prices, appreciation of RMB, and decline in export tax rebate rate, furniture enterprises were hit, and the furniture industry entered a more gentle and stable growth period. In 2009, the export delivery value of furniture manufacturing industry decreased by 6.98% year-on-year, which had a great impact on the industry. Many furniture enterprises began to implement the dual-track system of export and domestic sales, and gradually increased the domestic market.
Compared with the growth rate of more than 25% in almost every year from 2003 to 2007, the growth rate of output in the last three years is more stable, with CAGR of 17.8%. According to Zhu Changling, chairman of the Furniture Association, in 2012, the total output value of China’s furniture industry reached 1.13 trillion, making it the largest country in furniture production and consumption in the world. According to the revised data of the National Bureau of Statistics, from 2011 to 2013, the total sales of furniture manufacturing companies above designated size in China were 496.68 billion, 565.42 billion and 646.28 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 25.71%, 13.84% and 14.30% respectively. The CAGR for three years was 17.8%, and the total profit was 299.
The low growth rate of exports and the high growth rate of domestic sales offset each other, and the scale of the industry entered a period of gentle growth. In 2013, real estate sales picked up, and the growth rate of sales area in that year reached 17.3%, much higher than in previous years. Even so, the growth rate of furniture sales has not been significantly improved, mainly because of exports. In 2013, the growth rate of exports was only 6.94%, which lowered the total growth rate, while the growth rate of domestic sales was 16.77%. In the first half of 2014, the sales growth rate of furniture industry was 12.87% and the profit growth rate was 17.32%. According to the growth rate of 12.87%, the furniture sales volume in 2014 is estimated to be 729.5 billion, which is slightly lower than that in 2013. We believe that China’s furniture manufacturing industry has entered a stage of steady growth, and the growth rate will be maintained at around 15%, and there will be no large fluctuations in the total amount in the short term.
From the perspective of the proportion of import and export, China’s furniture industry is less and less dependent on exports, and the proportion of domestic sales is increasing. Since 2008, the export volume of China’s furniture manufacturing industry has declined every year. In 2013, the proportion reached a low of 23.49%, which was more than 13 percentage points lower than the proportion of 37% in 2008. In the first half of 2014, China’s furniture export delivery value was 78.35 billion yuan, accounting for 23.87%. According to previous years’ experience, the proportion of export delivery value in the first half of 2014 was generally higher than that in the second half. Therefore, we predict that the proportion of exports in 2014 will be around 22.37%, which is 1.12 percentage points lower than that of 23.49% in 2013.
Wooden furniture takes the lead, accounting for over 60%.
According to the Classification and Code of National Economic Industries issued by the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s furniture manufacturing industry can be divided into five categories according to varieties, namely, wooden furniture manufacturing, bamboo and rattan furniture manufacturing, metal furniture manufacturing, plastic furniture manufacturing and other furniture manufacturing. Furniture owners in China mainly rely on wooden furniture, accounting for more than 60%.
The marketing model is mainly based on distribution and joining, supplemented by direct sales.
China’s furniture manufacturing enterprises export mainly in ODM/OEM mode. The domestic sales model is mainly based on distribution and joining, and the proportion of direct stores is small. Even some large enterprises are far behind foreign countries in the construction of direct stores. Among the four China furniture companies we counted, Yazhen, a high-end furniture manufacturer, has the highest proportion of direct stores, accounting for 17.5%, which is still lower than the three American companies.
The increase in income promotes the transformation of demand to a high level, and high-end furniture manufacturers welcome the opportunity.
Income, real estate and export are the main reasons for demand, and urbanization promotes the steady growth of the industry.
Based on the data from the third quarter of 2011 to the first quarter of 2014, through regression analysis, we found that the sales area of commercial housing, urbanization rate, per capita disposable income of urban population and export volume all have significant positive effects on furniture sales, and the per capita income of rural residents has almost no impact on furniture sales. Among them, the growth of urban residents’ total disposable income has the greatest impact on furniture income in the past three years, which has led to a total increase of 19.6%, the growth of furniture exports has led to a total increase of 17%, and the growth of real estate sales area has led to a total increase of 10%.
Urbanization and per capita income are improving, which is the biggest driving force for future demand growth.
Since 2011, China’s urbanization rate has increased by more than 1% every year, reaching 53.73% in 2013. According to the goal of "National New Urbanization Plan (2014-2020)" issued by the State Council in early 2014, China’s population urbanization rate will reach 60% in 2020. In addition, the Plan also calls for the promotion of basic public services such as compulsory education, employment services and affordable housing, so as to solve the problems that it is difficult for agricultural migrants to integrate into urban society and the quality of urbanization is low. If these requirements are implemented, the quality of urbanization will be improved, and the consumption power of new urban population will be improved, which is conducive to furniture consumption demand.
The per capita disposable income of urban residents in China is increasing at a rate of about 10% per year. In 2013, the per capita disposable income of urban residents in China reached 26,955 yuan. From the historical experience of the furniture industry in developed countries, furniture consumption will rise sharply and last for a long time after the per capita income reaches 3,000 US dollars, while the per capita disposable income of urban residents in China exceeded 3,000 US dollars in 2011, so we think that this period will be a time when urban residents pay more attention to furniture consumption, and in this respect, the furniture demand in the domestic market will be improved.
Real estate is mixed, and second-and third-tier cities are better than first-tier cities.
In 2013, China’s real estate sales area reached 1,305.51 million square meters, an increase of 17.3% compared with 2012, much higher than the previous two years. Correspondingly, the growth rate of furniture sales in 2013 also increased to 14.3%. In the first half of 2014, although the sales area of real estate fell again, the sales area of 40 major cities decreased by 6% compared with the same period in 2013, but if the effect of large base in 2013 was removed, the sales area in the first half of 2014 still increased by 21% compared with the same period in 2012. Among them, the sales area of first-tier cities performed poorly, increasing by 8% compared with the same period in 2012, while the second-and third-tier cities performed well, increasing by 18% and 28% respectively compared with the same period in 2012. At present, the purchase restriction policies in second-and third-tier cities have begun to relax, while those in first-tier cities have not. We believe that the relative prosperity of real estate in second-and third-tier cities will make the demand for furniture in second-and third-tier cities grow faster, and the sales of furniture enterprises whose target markets are second-and third-tier cities will also grow faster.
The slowdown in export growth does not hinder the overall demand growth.
In the past three years, the annual growth rate of China’s furniture exports is very small, CAGR is 7.27%, and the proportion of exports to total sales is decreasing year by year, 26.82%, 25.11% and 23.49% respectively. The main exporting country of China’s furniture is the United States. At the same time, the current furniture imports of the United States mainly come from China, and the amount of furniture imported from China accounts for 56.4% of its total furniture imports and 21% of its total furniture consumption. In the long run, the export competitiveness of China furniture enterprises has weakened due to the increase of wages, electricity charges and other raw material prices in China, the reduction of export tax rebates and anti-dumping duties. From 2009 to 2011, the furniture import situation in the United States was not optimistic. Among its furniture suppliers, the furniture supply increased fastest in Vietnam, with an average increase of 15.3%, followed by Mexico and Taiwan, China, and Chinese mainland ranked fourth, with an increase of 9.9%. It can be seen that the share of China furniture in the US import market is slowly decreasing.
Although the export growth rate is slow, the strong domestic demand supports the steady growth of total demand. According to the quarterly data, we get the formula of the relationship between the annual sales of furniture and real estate, urban income and export volume. We estimate that the sales area of commercial housing in 2014 will be 1,240.23 million square meters, the total disposable income of urban residents will be 22,718.8 billion yuan, and the export volume will be 160.3 billion yuan. Therefore, the furniture sales in 2014 will be 724.73 billion yuan, an increase of 12.14% compared with 2013, which is consistent with the year-on-year growth rate of sales in the first half of the year.
The demand of domestic furniture industry is polarized, which will be "dumbbell-shaped"
With the growth rate of disposable income of urban households and exports relatively stable, the scale of furniture industry is closely related to real estate. We predict the population distribution in 2030 according to the mortality rate and birth rate, and point out that the number of people aged 20-44 (the main buyers) has reached its peak, and the proportion will drop from 33% in 2010 to 24%, and the proportion of people aged 25-35 (the main buyers of the first suite) will also drop from 15% to 9.
From this point of view, it is difficult for the total demand of the whole furniture industry to increase continuously in the next fifteen years. Enterprises need to seize the changes in demand types and levels, find new ways to improve profits, and pay attention to potential sub-sectors is king.
Domestic furniture demand will change from "pyramid" to "dumbbell"
Due to the low per capita consumption level of furniture and the long-term dependence of furniture manufacturing enterprises on exporting a single variety of furniture, the overall grade of China’s furniture industry is low, showing a pyramid shape. About 80% of furniture enterprises are small and medium-sized enterprises, producing and selling low-grade furniture. However, this phenomenon is changing. On the one hand, with the increase in the number of high-yield people in cities, the demand for furniture in star-rated hotels and the upgrading of consumption concepts, the demand for high-grade furniture and personalized furniture has gradually increased. On the other hand, the development of urbanization leads some low-yield rural population to enter cities, which brings a new round of low-end demand to the furniture industry.
The increase of star-rated hotels and the mass affluent class brings opportunities for the high-end furniture industry.
Star-rated hotels continue to grow, and the demand for replacement furniture is about to peak. Star hotels are a major source of consumption demand for high-end furniture. The number of five-star hotels in China increased from 302 in 2006 to 739 in 2013, and the CAGR was 12.85%. The number of four-star hotels increased from 1,369 in 2006 to 2,361 in 2013, with a CAGR of 9.46%. We divide the demand of star hotels for furniture into:
1) New furniture demand. Since 2006, five-star hotels and four-star hotels in China have added 19,300 sets of rooms annually, and 27,800 sets of rooms annually. We estimate that each set of furniture in five-star hotels costs 100,000 yuan and each set of furniture in four-star hotels costs 60,000 yuan, so the average annual demand for new furniture in these hotels is 3.6 billion yuan.
In July, 2014, Premier Li Keqiang presided over the the State Council executive meeting, determined the policies and measures to promote the reform and development of tourism, and proposed to strengthen the driving force of tourism development, increase investment in infrastructure, and vigorously develop the elderly, folk customs and health tourism. Therefore, we expect that the construction of star-rated hotels will continue.
2) Replace the furniture demand. Generally, four-star and five-star hotels are required to change furniture once every five years. According to this frequency, we predict that China is about to usher in a wave of demand for furniture replacement. In 2013, the demand for furniture replacement in star hotels in China will be about 5.2 billion, and in 2017, we expect that the demand for furniture replacement in star hotels in China will be nearly 13 billion.
The increase in the number of wealthy people in China provides a foundation for the development of high-end furniture. The number of affluent people in China was 11.97 million in 2013, and it is expected to reach 14.01 million in 2014, up 17.04% year-on-year, with a rapid growth rate. Among them, most people are in the age of the main group of buyers, accounting for 53.6% of the people under 40, and over 80% under 50. In addition, their children are younger, accounting for 34.2%, 32.5% and 24.4% under 10 years old, 10-20 years old and 20-30 years old respectively. This age structure that the number of people decreases with age makes the demand for wedding furniture increase year by year.
The change of consumption concept and finely decorated houses jointly promote the scale growth of customized furniture industry.
Custom-made furniture is tailor-made, personalized design, and large-scale and standardized production of furniture. Although custom-made furniture has entered the domestic market for more than ten years, it still belongs to a new industry, accounting for about 10% of the total furniture market share, with great development potential. Custom-made furniture well meets the difference between the use space of furniture and the individual needs of users. With the younger age structure of furniture consumers, individual needs have become the first appeal of decoration, which also brings opportunities to custom-made furniture manufacturers.
According to the White Paper on the Development and Consumption of Customized Household Industry in China in 2013 issued by the Solid Wood Customization Committee of the Furniture and Decoration Industry Chamber of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce, at present, among about 100 million urban households in China, the ownership rate of the whole kitchen, cloakroom and private wine cellar is only 6.8%, far below the average level of 35% in developed countries in Europe and America. In addition, about 29% of urban households said that they would buy and install the whole home in the next three to five years. In the next five years, the total demand or intentional purchase of customized homes in China will be about 29 million sets, with an average of 5.8 million sets per year.
Hardcover brings opportunities for overall custom furniture. The proportion of hardcover houses in China is relatively low, and the average proportion of fine decoration in China is less than 10%. In 2011, the proportion of hardcover houses in Beijing and Shanghai was around 21%, and that in Guangzhou was 32.9%, far below 80% in developed countries, which has broad room for improvement. From 1966 to 1975, Japan experienced the golden period of residential fine decoration and industrialization, which was driven by three main factors: 1) the post-war generation had higher requirements for urban housing conditions and decoration; 2) The rising labor cost of decoration makes batch decoration the only way; 3) Policy promotion. These three driving factors are consistent with China’s current situation. The rising income of urban residents has higher and higher requirements for housing, the increase in labor costs and the encouragement of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development for finely decorated housing will drive the development of finely decorated housing in China. In 2012, among the projects of major real estate developers in China, the proportion of fine decoration projects exceeded 50%.
The increase in finely decorated houses means an increase in the demand for overall customized furniture. At the same time, selling furniture directly to large customers such as real estate developers saves the marketing management expenses of enterprises. We expect this to become a big profit growth point for customized furniture manufacturing enterprises.
The demand for low-end furniture is still the cornerstone of China’s furniture market.
The huge scale of the low-end market is the present situation of China’s furniture industry. Affected by urbanization, a large number of rural people with low consumption capacity will enter cities, which will provide impetus for new low-end demand.
The industry pattern is loose and there are many opportunities for leading enterprises.
Judging from the trend and external conditions, the furniture manufacturing industry has gone through a period of rapid growth and started to enter a period of steady growth. Therefore, furniture manufacturing enterprises will face more intense competition, and the profit growth needs to be realized by expanding market share and brand strategy.
The overall industry concentration is low, and the integration will be carried out from mattresses and customized furniture.
Multi-level demand structure and large low-end demand are the two main reasons for the low concentration of China’s industries. Furniture manufacturing industry has the characteristics of low entry threshold and diverse choices of consumers, so the concentration of furniture industry in all countries is low. Yihua Wood, the largest furniture manufacturer in China, accounts for less than 1% of the market, and the market share of the top 10 enterprises is less than 3%. As the second largest furniture producer in the world, the United States is also the same. The share of the top 50 furniture manufacturers in the United States is only about 40%, and the concentration is slightly higher than that in China. There are two main reasons why the concentration of furniture manufacturing industry in China is lower than that in the United States. The first reason is that the uneven development of urban and rural areas and the eastern, central and western regions in China has formed a multi-level demand structure, and the products of a single enterprise are difficult to meet different levels of consumer demand, and most enterprises only focus on a certain level of consumption.
Secondly, there is a huge demand for low-end furniture, poor consumer brand awareness and lack of industry standards, which directly leads to a large number of small and medium-sized furniture manufacturers targeting low-end consumers in China. According to statistics, 80% of furniture manufacturing enterprises in China are small and medium-sized enterprises. On the one hand, the gross profit margin of these furniture enterprises is low (about 15%), and they don’t have enough expense space to achieve large-scale national expansion. On the other hand, their capital strength is limited, and it is difficult for the whole industry to have large-scale mergers and acquisitions.
Although the phenomenon of low concentration in the whole furniture industry is difficult to change for a while, the concentration in some sub-sectors is expected to be improved in the future, such as mattress industry and customized furniture industry. The mattress industry has concentrated space and motivation. The top 10 mattress manufacturers in the United States are expected to expand rapidly, accounting for more than 75% of the market share, while the top eight mattress brands in China only account for 11.16%, and the leading mattress enterprise Xilinmen only accounts for 3.98%. The main reason is that the history of China’s mattress industry is short, the functional characteristics are not generally recognized, and the market share is still homogenized.
Product possession. With the improvement of residents’ consumption level and people paying more and more attention to sleep quality, we believe that enterprises with technological advantages and independent brand advantages will gain greater market share, and small enterprises that focus on manufacturing and light quality will be eliminated because of increasingly fierce industry competition.
Sophia and Haolaike, two leading enterprises of custom furniture, are growing rapidly.
At present, the concentration of customized furniture industry in China is not high, and the market share of the top five companies is around 12%, which has room for improvement. The reasons for the concentration trend of custom-made furniture industry are as follows: First, the production of custom-made furniture stems from consumers’ requirements for personalization and craftsmanship at the same time, and the main consumers in the future tend to be middle and high-end consumers, who pay more attention to quality and brand, so the living environment of small and medium-sized enterprises is difficult. Second, although the entry threshold of custom-made furniture industry is low, there are many barriers to make it bigger, which require the gradual accumulation of flexible manufacturing mode, information system construction and service capacity construction, so it is easy for large enterprises to consolidate their market share.
The industry leader Sophia’s revenue has been growing at a high speed in the past six years, with CAGR of 50.55%. In 2013, the revenue was 8.85 times that of 2008, and the company’s market share was 7% in 2011, more than doubling from 3.3% in 2006. Guangzhou Haolaike, the second largest company, has a CAGR of 30% in the past two years, which has grown rapidly and is higher than the market average. We expect that the scale and market share of leading customized furniture enterprises will increase rapidly.
The business strategy of enterprises should be paid attention to when exporting to domestic market.
Since the financial crisis, the export proportion of China’s furniture manufacturing industry has been declining every year. The unstable foreign economic environment and the growing domestic demand have made many enterprises begin to transform and aim at the domestic market. The most obvious manifestation of this phenomenon is the enterprises with a relatively large proportion of exports before, such as Yihua Wood and Meike Home. Yihua Wood’s export revenue accounted for 98.19% in 2008, and fell to 84.98% in 2013. The company continuously promoted the domestic marketing model of "experience hall+specialty store" and established a WeChat marketing platform with Tencent, aiming at vigorously deploying domestic furniture sales. Meike Home’s export revenue accounted for 61.54% in 2008, and decreased to 39.89% in 2013.
The operating expenses of large enterprises perform well, which is conducive to the development of brand strategy.
Compared with similar furniture companies in the United States, large furniture manufacturing companies in China have performed well in operating expenses. The average sales and management expenses of similar furniture companies in the United States account for more than 80% of the gross profit, while China only accounts for 57%. It can be seen that China’s furniture manufacturing enterprises still have a lot of room for independent changes in sales management expenses, which is conducive to the development of enterprise strategy.
China’s furniture industry is still in the growth stage, with low brand recognition, and there is still room for improvement in the future. At present, the good performance of operating expenses makes the company have enough space to enhance its brand competitiveness in the industry while maintaining profitability, such as expanding sales channels, improving research and development capabilities and expanding advertising.
Gross profit margin has an upward trend.
Compared with batch export, the gross profit margin of domestic sales is higher. The average comprehensive gross profit margin of the nine furniture manufacturing enterprises that have been listed and are going to be listed is about 39%, the average export gross profit margin is 22.43%, and the average domestic gross profit margin is 40.67%. Among them, Zhejiang Yongyi’s main business is seat production and sales, which is quite different from other furniture companies’ products, so the gross profit margin is significantly lower; Sophia’s main product, customized furniture, cannot be exported, and its export products are basically furniture parts and floors with lower gross profit margin, so the gross profit margin of export is far lower than that of its domestic business.
The average gross profit margin of similar furniture manufacturing listed companies in the United States is 40%, which is similar to that in China. However, among the furniture manufacturing companies in the United States, the gross profit margin of some companies is obviously low, because they include transportation expenses in their operating costs. If the transportation expenses are added back to the gross profit according to the average transportation expenses of 7.5% in the United States, the average gross profit margin of similar furniture companies in the United States will be 45%, slightly higher than that in China.
In recent years, the gross profit margin of large furniture manufacturing companies in China has basically increased, and we think this trend will continue in the future for two main reasons:
1. Continuous optimization of business structure. The company gradually increases the proportion of businesses with higher gross profit margin (such as retail business and domestic sales business) and reduces the proportion of businesses with low gross profit margin. For example, Meike Home has increased the proportion of its retail business with higher gross profit margin from 36% in 2006 to 59% in 2013.
Therefore, the comprehensive gross profit margin has also increased from 30% to 52%. The comprehensive gross profit margin of Yihua Wood also increased with the continuous increase of the proportion of domestic sales. We believe that the business trend of furniture manufacturing companies in the future will be to combine production and marketing, to domestic sales and retail sales, so the gross profit margin will be further improved.
2. The cost of advertising is increasing. Advertising is the key to enhancing brand recognition, and enhancing brand recognition is the key to improving gross profit margin. The average advertising cost in China accounts for only 7.71% of gross profit, which is far lower than the level of 15.8% in the United States, and there is room for improvement. In recent years, the advertising expenses of three furniture listed companies except Yihua Wood Industry are on the rise. We believe that with the intensification of brand competition, the advertising expenses of the companies will continue to increase in the future. In addition, as Yihua Wood further expands its sales in the domestic furniture market, its advertising expenditure will certainly increase in the future. In addition to the above two reasons, if large furniture manufacturers can further strengthen the construction of direct stores,
Its gross profit margin will also increase. Generally speaking, for furniture manufacturers, the gross profit margin of direct stores is higher than that of dealer stores. Take Sofia as an example. In 2010, the gross profit margin of direct stores was as high as 55%, while that of dealer stores was only 35%. Direct stores have the disadvantages of large initial investment, low short-term return and high management cost. But for companies with capital strength and long-term strategic vision, direct stores can not only bring higher gross profit margin, but also better implement the company’s business philosophy and feedback the user experience, which is beneficial to establishing brand effect and is a better choice.
Optimistic about the expansion speed of channel sinking enterprises
The sinking of channels is conducive to the expansion of sales scale.
From the perspective of regional structure, both East China and South China are the most developed areas in furniture industry, and their furniture income accounts for 64.7% of the total furniture income in China. The regional differences in export delivery value are more obvious. export delivery value in East and South China accounts for 90% of the total exports, while export delivery value in Southwest China is almost zero because of its geographical location.
We compared the income of furniture industry in different regions in 2008, 2009 and recent years, and found that the proportion of furniture income in East China and South China is shifting to Central China and Southwest China, and its proportion has dropped from 72.4% in 2008 to 66% now. Combined with the fact that the growth rate of consumption level in different regions is similar, we believe that the reason for the above phenomenon is that the furniture consumption growth in the relatively backward central and western regions is higher than that in the more developed east. By comparing the income of furniture industry in Beijing, Shanghai and the four richest provinces, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong and other provinces and cities, we get similar results. The proportion of furniture income in the six richest provinces and cities has dropped from 67% in 2008 to 53% now. In view of the fact that the consumption growth level of different regions in China is very similar in recent years, we don’t expect this trend to change in the future, so the furniture consumption growth rate of regions with low consumption level will be higher than that of regions with high consumption level in the future.
Earlier, we explained the impact of real estate transactions on furniture demand. From the perspective of real estate transactions in first, second and third tier cities, the growth rate of real estate transactions in first-tier cities was basically lower than that in second and third tier cities in recent years. From 2011 to 2013, the average annual growth rate of first-tier cities was 6.4%, the growth rate of second-tier cities was 12.3%, and the growth rate of third-tier cities was 9.6%. Based on the above two points, we think that some companies that sink their sales channels will be more likely to expand their sales scale.
Discussion on four major trends
We have the following judgments on the future trend of the furniture industry: 1. The proportion of domestic sales will be further expanded, and furniture companies with domestic sales as the mainstay have greater opportunities to outperform the market. 2. The future profit growth rate of customized furniture companies will be higher than average. 3. Brand competition is the focus of future furniture company competition, and dominant brands are favored by investors. 4. Channel sinking is the marketing trend of large furniture companies.
1. The proportion of domestic sales will be further expanded, and furniture companies mainly engaged in domestic sales will have greater opportunities to outperform the market. The domestic sales growth rate of the whole furniture industry is obviously higher than the export growth rate, and the furniture companies also pay more attention to the domestic market. Judging from the market reaction, four listed companies in the furniture manufacturing industry have outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index since their listing, and Sophia and Xilinmen, which account for a large proportion of domestic sales, have a weak correlation with the Shanghai Composite Index; The stock price of Yihua Wood, which is mainly sold in domestic market, fluctuates in the same way as that of the Shanghai Composite Index. However, Meike Home, which has experienced the transition from export to domestic sales, was in line with the fluctuation of Shanghai Composite Index before the transition, and gradually outperformed the market after the transition. Therefore, we believe that the domestic furniture market has more potential than foreign countries, and the domestic sales of furniture manufacturing companies are the key to their stock price outperforming the market.
2. The future profit growth rate of customized furniture companies will be higher than average. The development of customized furniture in the future is driven by the following factors: 1) the upgrading of consumption concept and the demand for personalized home; 2) The increase of small and medium-sized housing in cities leads to people’s concern about space utilization; 3) The increase of finely decorated houses. From the historical trend, the net profit and share price of Sophia, the only customized furniture listed company, have risen rapidly.
3. Brand competition is the focus of future furniture company competition, and dominant brands are favored by investors. In China, most kinds of furniture belong to durable consumer goods. With the improvement of consumption power, people will pay more attention to quality when buying furniture, so brand competition will become the focus of future competition for enterprises. Judging from the market reaction, investors also pay more attention to the brand building of enterprises. Take Xilinmen as an example, the stock price of Xilinmen increased by as high as 83.7% from July 2013 to April 2014. During this period, the company carried out a number of projects conducive to brand building, such as holding a national new product order meeting, cooperating with Disney and Aiying Company, accepting Disney brand license and Doraemon brand authorization, and signing a cooperation agreement with Melaleuca Home Network.
4. Channel sinking is the marketing trend of large furniture companies. The overall demand for furniture consumption in China’s second-and third-tier cities is huge. If we count the cities with per capita consumption expenditure exceeding 20,000, we estimate that the furniture consumption in second-tier cities accounts for 53.2%, that in first-tier street furniture accounts for 31.2%, and that in third-tier street furniture accounts for 15.7%. If all the first, second and third tier cities are counted, the consumption of second-tier street furniture accounts for 44.8%, that of third-tier street furniture accounts for 37.8%, and that of first-tier street furniture accounts for 17.4%. In addition, the sales of real estate in second-and third-tier cities are better than those in first-tier cities, and the growth rate of consumption level in second-and third-tier cities is similar to that in first-tier cities, and the stimulation of furniture consumption brought by consumption growth is higher than that in first-tier cities, so we predict that the growth rate of furniture demand in second-and third-tier cities will be faster. At present, the sales networks of four furniture listed companies are all spread all over the country, and the trend of opening specialty stores in second, third and even fourth tier cities is also obvious. It has become the consensus of furniture manufacturing companies that the sinking of channels is conducive to expanding market share.
(Internship Editor: Jiang Dongni)
