
On September 3, 2019, the price tag of cheap and assured pork was posted in the market of Nanning and ma village. Vision china map "Now the government is vigorously encouraging pig raising. Yesterday (September 5), the deputy county magistrate convened a meeting of farmers’ representatives, conveying the general meaning that the government supports farming, and if there are any problems, the government will come forward to solve them, and interest-free loans may be introduced later. The government will also do the work in environmental protection. " On September 6th, Liu Jian (a pseudonym), a pig farmer in xiushui county, Jiujiang City, Jiangxi Province, told The Paper.
Including this mountainous county in northwest Jiangxi, promoting pig production and ensuring market supply is being actively promoted as an important livelihood project throughout the country. Affected by multiple factors such as pig supply cycle and epidemic situation, the domestic pork market has attracted much attention this year, from pig breeding in the supply chain, purchase and delivery to consumption on the table.
On September 5, the data released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs showed that from August 26 to September 1, the average purchase price of pigs in designated pig slaughter enterprises above designated size was 26.00 yuan/kg, up 6.86% from the previous week and 82.97% from the same period last year. The average ex-factory price of white striped meat was 33.05 yuan/kg, up 6.34% from the previous week and 75.33% from the same period last year.
China, as a big pork consuming country, the rising pork price has attracted great attention from the government, and the pork supply guarantee has been promoted to the height of "concerning people’s livelihood and the overall situation". Since August, the executive meeting of the State Council has repeatedly mentioned "measures to ensure the supply and price stability of pork". In September, Hu Chunhua, Vice Premier of the People’s Republic of China went to Sichuan Province and Heilongjiang Province for on-the-spot supervision, stressing the need to vigorously promote the stability and recovery of pig production in the main producing areas. The State Council took the lead, and many government departments cooperated with each other, and made a series of policies on loan discount, insurance coverage, improved seed subsidies, pig breeding land and so on.
Support policies such as loan subsidies were introduced.
As a representative of farmers in the town, Liu Jian attended the communication meeting on pig breeding held by the xiushui county Municipal Government on September 5th, and he looked forward to the follow-up support of government departments in subsidies and loans. Now, there are hundreds of pigs in his farm, and the disinfection control is becoming more and more strict, and even no outsiders are allowed to enter the pig factory.
Due to the good epidemic prevention measures, Liu Jian’s farm has not been affected by the epidemic. On the contrary, with the high price of pork, it is still profitable. However, he has no idea whether to increase investment in farming next. Other farmers are also watching. "It depends on how the government issues documents, and now many things are being promoted."
The decline of pig production and the decrease of stock are emerging. According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first half of 2019, 313 million pigs were slaughtered nationwide, a decrease of 20.75 million heads or 6.2% compared with the same period of the previous year; The output of pork was 24.7 million tons, a decrease of 1.43 million tons or 5.5%. At the end of June, there were 348 million live pigs in China, a year-on-year decrease of 61.43 million or 15.0%.
As the major pig production provinces in China, Sichuan Province and Heilongjiang Province have become the key stations for government inspection. On September 6th, Hu Chunhua, Vice Premier of the People’s Republic of China pointed out that ensuring the supply of pork is one of the most urgent tasks in the work of agriculture, countryside and farmers.
The "vegetable basket" plan focusing on pork production has been included in the assessment of local governments. Prior to this, on August 30th, a national video conference on stabilizing the supply of live pig production guarantee market was held in Beijing. Hu Chunhua pointed out that pig production in all localities should be strictly in accordance with the requirements of the overall responsibility of the province and the mayor’s responsibility system of "vegetable basket", and resolutely accomplish the goal of stable production and supply of pigs.
Major provinces have also put forward production targets for 2019-2022. Taking Shandong Province as an example, it is estimated that 2.8 million pigs, 3.2 million pigs and 4.2 million pigs will be transferred out in 2019, 2020 and 2022 respectively. Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong and other provinces have proposed that the self-sufficiency rate of pigs in the province will be stabilized at over 70%.
Production tasks were quickly spread from major provinces to various cities, and some provinces even explicitly required the minimum pig slaughter in various cities. In order to fully mobilize the enthusiasm of farmers and solve the problem of pork shortage in the domestic market, several major government departments have joined hands to "make moves".
For example, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs jointly issued a notice a few days ago, proposing a series of policies, such as improving the temporary loan discount policy for breeding pig farms and large-scale pig farms, increasing the incentives for pigs to be transferred out of large counties, increasing the insurance coverage of pigs, supporting the implementation of subsidies for improved varieties of pigs, and strengthening provincial financial co-ordination.
On August 30th, the Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of Jiangxi Province issued the "Announcement on the Review of Discount Loan for Working Capital of Breeding Pig Farms and Large-scale Pig Farms", saying that after the review by Jiangxi Supervision Bureau of the Ministry of Finance, it is planned to give discount loans to 224 breeding pig farms and large-scale pig farms, with a total amount of 22,548,900 yuan.
Other places have also come up with "real money and silver." According to Farmers Daily, Sichuan Province plans to arrange 300 million yuan of financial funds in 2019, carry out standardization construction in an all-round way, encourage and support qualified farmers to expand production, and focus on supporting the layout and development of leading enterprises in Sichuan. Jiangsu Province allocated 261 million yuan for the protection of pig germplasm resources and subsidies for the purchase of breeding pigs in large-scale pig farms, and supported key breeding counties and large-scale pig farms to improve epidemic prevention facilities.
Guangdong Province arranged 20 million yuan to implement discount loans for working capital of breeding pig farms and large-scale pig farms, 80 million yuan to support the transformation and upgrading of the slaughtering industry, and 100 million yuan to support the construction and standardization of facilities for recycling manure in livestock and poultry farms.
Henan province is also quite "generous". The province proposes to use 300 million yuan of pigs as a whole to transfer incentive funds from big counties, focusing on supporting the "two games" to improve infrastructure and epidemic prevention conditions; We will implement the "two-game" loan discount policy and give 110 million yuan of discount subsidies to 154 pig-raising enterprises. The provincial finance will also allocate 170 million yuan to support the standardization of live pigs in non-livestock counties.
In addition, Zhejiang Province has launched a consumption subsidy mechanism for the needy. From April to July, the province has distributed a total of 210 million yuan of price subsidy funds, and arranged more than 1 billion yuan in the rural revitalization investment fund to increase financial interest subsidies to ensure the capital needs of large-scale aquaculture entities.
breedheadEnterprise accelerated layout
The supply of pork is in short supply, and a number of policies have escorted it, which directly led to a sharp rise in the stock prices of related listed aquaculture enterprises. According to the statistics of Choice, as of September 3, the total market value of the pork concept sector of A shares has soared from 424.7 billion yuan to 849 billion yuan in just one year, with an increase of nearly 100%.
Although pork concept stocks are favored in the capital market, it is difficult to ignore the breeding cost and operating pressure of enterprises due to multiple factors. Feedback to the financial report is that in the first half of this year, the performance of head enterprises appeared "two days of ice and fire", and the net profit of Wenshi shares and New Hope increased substantially year-on-year, while the net profit of Mu Yuan shares, Zhengbang Technology and Yurun Food all fell or even lost money.
Overall, the industry’s pig production capacity has weakened. According to the data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in July 2019, the number of live pigs in 400 monitoring counties nationwide decreased by 32.2% compared with the same period of last year, and the number of fertile sows decreased by 31.9% compared with the same period of last year.
"It is not clear whether the local government has issued production targets to the company." A person from the securities affairs department of a pig breeding listed company told The Paper that in the first half of this year, the company attached great importance to epidemic prevention safety and accumulated effective experience; In the second half of the year, we will take the expansion strategy as the development direction, continue to implement the breeding planning objectives during the year, and take the opportunity to increase the market share. "We are still optimistic about the prospects of the breeding industry."
Faced with the current market situation, many head breeding enterprises are also accelerating their layout. Since this year, a number of cooperative projects have been launched one after another, including the pig breeding industrialization projects that New Hope Group signed with Guang ‘an, Sichuan, Pengshui, Chongqing and ziyang, Sichuan, respectively, with an annual output of 3 million, 1 million and 2 million pigs.
Wen’s shares are also important participants. In August 2019, the company signed the "Two Million Project" project with Guoyang County, Bozhou City, Anhui Province, that is, 1 million pigs breeding+1 million pigs slaughtering and processing, with a total investment of about 2 billion yuan, with an annual output value of about 3 billion.
Also in August, Mu Yuan announced that it planned to slaughter 13 million to 15 million pigs in 2019, and raised a net fund of 2.46 billion yuan, which was mainly used for five pig breeding construction projects in Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, Liaoning and Jilin, with a total annual slaughter target of 2.1 million pigs.
On September 3rd, Zhongtai Securities released the research report "Analysis on Key Indicators of Pig Stock Interim Report", which showed that the productive biological assets of head enterprises were flat or rising at the end of the second quarter of this year, reflecting that the current epidemic prevention and control has made good progress and the production capacity began to recover.
Stimulate the enthusiasm of small and medium-sized farmers
"It is equally important to stabilize the market price of pork, support the cultivation of large and medium-sized leading aquaculture enterprises, and stimulate the production enthusiasm of small and medium-sized farmers and farmers." Pan Xiangdong, vice president and chief economist of New Era Securities, said in an interview with The Paper that it is expected to take a process for small and medium-sized aquaculture enterprises at the grass-roots level to truly feel the series of support measures launched by the state.
For small and medium-sized farmers and farmers, the policy that has the most direct impact on them is: In August, Premier Li Keqiang made it clear at the executive meeting in the State Council that the local authorities should immediately cancel the regulations on the prohibition and restriction of raising pigs beyond the laws and regulations, develop large-scale farming, and support farmers to raise pigs.
A number of government departments are rectifying the excessive policies of banning and limiting support in rural areas in previous years. In 2016, the State Council issued the Notice of the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan for Ecological Environment Protection", requiring all regions to close or relocate livestock and poultry farms (communities) and specialized farming households in the no-breeding areas according to law before the end of 2017, and vigorously support the standardized transformation and construction of livestock and poultry farms (communities).
Since then, many provinces across the country have successively started the relocation of pig-forbidden areas. Coupled with the swine fever epidemic since 2018, the number of small and medium-sized farmers has decreased, and retail farming has almost cleared. According to the data of Sky Eye Survey, there are more than 1.4 million "pig" enterprises in China at present, and they have maintained a high growth rate in the past decade. However, the number of cancelled and revoked enterprises is also increasing year by year. In recent years, there are more than 40,000 related cancelled enterprises every year.
In order to solve the problem and actively respond, a series of effective measures are being introduced. According to Xinhua News Agency, since August 31st, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Natural Resources, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, the Ministry of Transport, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission and other departments, have conscientiously implemented the decision-making arrangements of the CPC Central Committee in the State Council, and many departments have successively issued documents and issued 17 policies and measures to support the development of pig production.
On September 4th, the General Office of the Ministry of Natural Resources issued the Notice of the General Office of the Ministry of Natural Resources on Issues Related to Safeguarding the Land for Pig Breeding, and urgently issued the land policy for pig breeding to ensure the demand for pig breeding land. On September 5, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment responded for the first time, demanding that all localities should not expand the designated scope of no-breeding areas, and should not restrict the development of pig industry or reduce the production capacity of pigs in violation of laws and regulations on the grounds of improving the ecological environment.
"At present, China’s pig industry is still in the stage of increasing industrial concentration. The adjustment of national environmental protection policies has little impact on the operation of large-scale listed companies. Enterprises have formed their own environmental protection systems, and the overall business strategy will not change." A person from the securities affairs department of the above-mentioned pig breeding listed company said.
Small and medium-sized aquaculture enterprises are facing certain pressure. The chairman of a breeding enterprise in fengqiu county told The Paper that last year, affected by the epidemic situation, the local government guided farmers to buy insurance, and the insurance premium for each pig was 40 yuan. For dead pigs weighing more than 200 kilograms, the insurance company also paid for 200 kilograms at 4 yuan per catty. Coupled with the cost of breeding, such as feed, electricity, labor, etc., it is still a loss. Many small and medium-sized farmers in the county have changed careers this year.
In order to enhance farmers’ ability to resist risks, recently, the Notice on Supporting the Work of Stabilizing the Supply of Live Pig Production Security Market issued by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, China mentioned that "the policy insurance policy for live pigs should be improved. Improve the insurance coverage of fertile sows and fattening pigs, temporarily increase the insurance coverage of fertile sows from 1,000-1,200 yuan to 1,500 yuan, and increase the insurance coverage of fattening pigs from 500-600 yuan to 800 yuan. The specific matters shall be handled according to the relevant requirements of the financial department. "
Pan Xiangdong believes that one of the most needed safeguards for farmers or aquaculture enterprises at present is the preferential policies to encourage pig raising, including financing policies and fiscal policies, and the policies should be stable. Secondly, we should rationally plan the land for agricultural breeding in order to adapt to the new era of agricultural industrialization, improve industrial concentration and production efficiency, and better manage the supply of agricultural products.
The Paper trainee reporter Wu Yi reporter Li Wenying