What is the future trend of gold price？ What should investors pay attention to？ Experts analyze this.

CCTV News:This week, the New York Mercantile Exchange’s main gold futures price rose four times in only four trading days, and closed at a record high for two consecutive days. As of the close of 28th, the New York Mercantile Exchange’s main gold futures price closed at $2,238.40 per ounce. Throughout March, the new york gold futures price rose by nearly 8%, the biggest monthly increase since November 2022.

The price of domestic jewelry gold is rising by 12 yuan/gram every day, approaching 700 yuan/gram.

The international gold price surged strongly, and the price of the domestic gold retail market also rose. On March 30th, the listing price of jewelry gold in many domestic brand gold shops reached 686 yuan/gram, approaching 700 yuan/gram. How do consumers choose at high prices? Come and see the reporters’ field visits in several gold shops in Beijing.

On the morning of March 30th, when the reporter visited several gold stores in Beijing, he found that the listed prices of Chow Tai Fook and China Gold had reached 686 yuan/gram. Although the price of gold has risen, there are still many consumers who come to buy gold, but they generally feel that the price of gold has risen too fast recently.

With the soaring price of gold, the trend of gold consumption and investment has also diverged. Some consumers are more cautious and decide to wait and see or choose some products with lower grams, but some consumers have the psychology of "buying more and more" in the face of crazy gold prices.

The rise in the price of gold has made the gold repurchase business hot. The reporter met a "post-00" consumer who is still in high school. He told reporters that he came to realize gold today and earned a total of more than 1,000 yuan.

Yang Li, a senior gold investment analyst of a gold jewelry company in Beijing, said: "Since March this year, the highest increase in international gold prices has reached 9.3%. From the domestic price point of view, the increase in March has been nearly 50 yuan, and the increase has reached 10%. On Thursday and Friday, especially on Friday (March 29th), domestic prices rose by 11-mdash; 12 yuan per gram. "

Shenzhen Shuibei Market: Hot sale of rigid wedding gold ornaments reduces the number of investors.　

There is still one month before the May Day wedding season, and many new couples begin to buy "three golds" for the wedding. Will the rising price of gold affect the enthusiasm of newcomers to buy gold? Look at the reporter’s visit to Shuibei Gold Market in Shenzhen, Guangdong.

On Saturday, Shenzhen Shuibei Gold Market was crowded. On March 30th, Ms. Yu and her husband came here specially from Guizhou to buy the "three gold" for marriage.

Customers who come to buy gold go wave after wave, mainly young couples, and the types of purchases are mostly wedding accessories such as dragon and phoenix bracelets and necklaces.

Merchants told reporters that the number of investors who came to their stores to buy gold bars has decreased recently, and most of the buyers are married people, which is just a need to buy gold.

With gold prices hitting record highs, wholesalers are cautious and reduce stocking and inventory.

The exchange rate of the Japanese yen against the US dollar hit a 34-year low, and the Japanese gold price exceeded 12,000 yen/gram.

On March 30th, the retail price of gold counters announced by Tanaka Precious Metals in Japan reached 12,086 yen per gram, which was about 579 yuan, hitting a record high for the third consecutive day. Against the background that the exchange rate of the Japanese yen against the US dollar has fallen to a 34-year low, the enthusiasm of Japanese people to trade gold is high. Let’s watch the report sent back from Tokyo by the special correspondent of the financial channel.

This is a jewelry store located in Ginza, Tokyo. In addition to brand jewelry, it is also engaged in the acquisition and sale of precious metals such as second-hand gold jewelry and gold coins. Affected by the continuous rise in the price of gold in Japan, the recovery price of gold has also been pushed up.

According to the person in charge of the store, some patients in the nearby dental clinic will go to the store to sell the newly replaced gold teeth. Although there is only a thin piece of gold, it can be sold for about 10,000 yen at the current recycling price. According to the person in charge, driven by the rising price of gold, the total sales and purchases of gold in the store increased by 30% year-on-year.

In addition to the daily gold jewelry, some Japanese consumers will also protect their assets by buying 24K gold coins to counter rising prices. Analysts pointed out that the recent high international gold price has driven the Japanese gold price to rise. In addition, the yen once again showed an accelerated depreciation trend. On March 27th, the exchange rate of the yen fell below 1 US dollar to 151.94 yen, the lowest level since July 1990, which became another important factor to boost the current round of Japanese gold prices to record highs.

Analysis: The short-term or long-term correction of gold prices is easy to rise and difficult to fall.

The price of gold has been rising all the way, so what is the future trend of gold price? What should investors pay attention to? Keep looking.

The World Gold Council pointed out in the "Global Gold Demand Trend Report" released a few days ago that the changes in the inflow and outflow of global gold ETF funds reflect investors’ attitude towards gold. In 2023, the inflow of gold ETF in China market was about 5 billion yuan, and the total scale increased to 29 billion yuan, a record high.

Liu Yuxuan, a senior researcher of precious metals in Guotai Junan Futures, said: "In the past 20 years, the international gold price has shown a steady upward trend. From $428 an ounce 20 years ago to the latest March 28th, the international gold price hit a historical high of $2,254 an ounce. In the past 20 years, the price of gold has increased by more than 400%. Compared with other commodities such as copper, crude oil and iron ore, gold has shown a steady upward trend for a long time. "

For the performance of the gold price in the market, many insiders believe that there are still many uncertainties in the short term, which may lead to a short-term correction of the gold price.

Wang Yanqing, chief researcher of precious metals in CITIC Jiantou Futures, said: "The Fed has not confirmed the timing of interest rate cuts, which also brings uncertainty to the future interest rate cuts, but the market is very strong in the expected interest rate cuts, which has brought strong support to gold. At the same time, excessive early trading expectations may also accumulate some risks, which may trigger a short-term correction of gold. "

Liu Yuxuan, a senior researcher of precious metals in Guotai Junan Futures, once again said: "Before the official start of interest rate cuts, the bullish atmosphere of the market for gold was often strong, so we can see that the price of gold has shown an accelerated upward trend recently."

Industry insiders also told reporters that although there is a certain risk of callback in the short term, in the long run, the probability of gold prices continuing to fluctuate and rise is greater.

Wang Yanqing, chief researcher of CITIC Jiantou Futures Precious Metals, said: "In the long run, it is the general trend for the US monetary policy to change from tight to loose, and the superimposed geopolitical risks are increasing. Central banks are continuing to increase their holdings of gold, and the gold market will still be easy to rise and fall."