How to treat the 6.2% economic growth rate in the first three quarters？ There is still huge room for investment growth.
On October 18th, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the report card of the national economy in the first three quarters of 2019 — —
□ According to preliminary accounting, the GDP in the first three quarters was 69,779.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.2% at comparable prices. Among them, it increased by 6.4% in the first quarter, 6.2% in the second quarter and 6.0% in the third quarter.
□ In the face of the complicated situation in which risks and challenges at home and abroad have increased significantly, China’s national economy is generally stable, the economic structure has been continuously optimized, and people’s livelihood and well-being have been continuously improved. From the next stage, although the external environment is severe and complicated, there are many powerful domestic supporting factors. It is conditional and supportive to keep the economy running smoothly in the next step.
There are still many positive factors supporting smooth operation.
In the first three quarters of this year, GDP increased by 6.2% year-on-year, of which the growth rate in the third quarter was 6.0%. The cumulative growth rate of GDP in the first three quarters and the growth rate in the current quarter all showed a continuous slowdown trend.
At the press conference held by the State Council Information Office on October 18th, Mao Shengyong, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics, said, "Since the beginning of this year, the growth of the world economy and international trade has slowed down, and the domestic economy is under great downward pressure. The central government issued a series of counter-cyclical adjustment policies and measures in a timely manner, which well withstood the downward pressure on the economy. "
Mao Shengyong said that although the GDP growth rate has slowed down, the growth rate of 6.2% is among the best in the world’s major economies; It is preliminarily estimated that 6.2% is still the fastest among the economies with a global economic aggregate of more than $1 trillion; Compared with the past, the growth rate of 6.2% is moderate to high, but it is still high in the world.
From the main indicators, it is generally maintained in a reasonable range. In terms of employment, the unemployment rate in the national urban survey in September was 5.2%, which was the same as last month; In the first nine months, the new employment in cities and towns basically achieved the annual target and task. From the price point of view, the year-on-year increase of CPI in September has expanded, but the increase of core CPI after deducting food and energy is 1.5%; In the first nine months, the average year-on-year increase of CPI was 2.5%, which was a moderate increase. In terms of income, the per capita disposable income of the national residents actually increased by 6.1% in the first three quarters, which was basically in sync with the economic growth rate and faster than the per capita GDP growth rate. From the ecological environment, the energy intensity continued to decline in the first three quarters, and the proportion of production and use of clean energy continued to increase.
In addition, although the external environment is severe and complicated, there are many powerful domestic supporting factors, and it is conditional and supportive to keep the economy running smoothly in the next step.
For example, the supporting capacity of the service industry is constantly increasing. In the first three quarters, the growth rate of added value of service industry was 7%; In the consumption expenditure, the growth rate of service consumption exceeds 10%. The consumption potential is constantly released. The contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth in the first three quarters remained above 60%. The trend of transformation and upgrading continues to develop. From the perspective of manufacturing, the added value of high-tech industries in industries above designated size increased by 11% year-on-year in September, 4.9 percentage points faster than last month; The growth rate of strategic emerging industries also exceeded 9% in September. From the perspective of investment, investment in short-board and high-tech fields continued to maintain relatively rapid growth. From January to September, the growth rate of investment in high-tech industries and social fields was above 13%. The policy effect continues to appear. The state has issued a series of policies to reduce taxes and fees, and the effects are constantly emerging. At the same time, it has also increased the scale of local special bonds and accelerated the issuance progress, and the effect has also been constantly emerging. Increasing support for the real economy in the financial sector and promoting the downward trend of real interest rates are also effective. Some effects are emerging, and some effects will continue to emerge later.
The ability to absorb employment has been further enhanced.
Generally speaking, employment and economic growth are highly correlated. In the first three quarters, although the economic growth rate slowed down, the employment situation was generally stable. There were 10.97 million new jobs in cities and towns across the country, and 99.7% of the annual targets and tasks were completed. In September, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.2%, the same as last month. Among them, the survey unemployment rate of the population aged 25 to 59 is 4.6%, which is 0.6 percentage points lower than the national urban survey unemployment rate. The survey unemployment rate in 31 big cities and towns was 5.2%, which was the same as last month.
Mao Shengyong analyzed that although China’s economic growth rate has slowed down slightly, this speed is still relatively good in the world. In addition, with the expansion of economic volume, the economic increment brought by each percentage point increase is also expanding, and the scale of employment that can be absorbed is also increasing.
At present, the steady growth of employment in China is also closely related to the changes in industrial structure. In recent years, China’s service industry has maintained rapid growth, and the proportion of added value of service industry in GDP continues to increase. The absorption capacity of such industrial structure for employment is constantly increasing, and the employment elasticity of economic growth is increasing.
In addition, the state has introduced a proactive employment policy. For example, a series of policies such as promoting mass entrepreneurship and innovation, implementing more flexible employment policies, especially helping key employment groups, such as increasing employment training, have also achieved good results. New industries, new formats and new business models are constantly growing, providing space for the expansion of employment scale and employment capacity.
"We must also see that there are indeed some structural contradictions within the current employment." Mao Shengyong analyzed that the national urban survey unemployment rate is relatively stable, but there are also some areas where the survey unemployment rate is relatively high. The unemployment rate of young people is higher than the overall unemployment rate, and it is relatively difficult for college students to find jobs. The structural contradiction now is that on the one hand, it is difficult for enterprises to recruit workers, and at the same time, it is difficult for some college students to find jobs.
There is still huge room for future investment growth.
Investment plays a very important role in China’s economic growth. In the first three quarters, the national fixed assets investment (excluding farmers) was 46,120.4 billion yuan, up 5.4% year-on-year, of which the manufacturing investment increased by 2.5%. In the first three quarters, the contribution rate of capital formation to GDP growth was 19.8%.
In response to a reporter’s question from the Economic Daily, Mao Shengyong said that in the first three quarters, although the growth rate of national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) slowed down slightly compared with the previous eight months, structurally, the growth rate of tertiary industry investment in the first three quarters was 7.2%, which was a relatively fast growth. Investment in some social fields and high-tech fields is also growing rapidly. The growth rate of investment in high-tech industries and social fields is 13% or above in the first nine months, which is conducive to filling shortcomings and enhancing development potential.
Recently, the growth rate of manufacturing investment and private investment has slowed down. Mao Shengyong said that this shows that the real economy is facing many difficulties, and it is necessary to further intensify efforts to implement the policies promulgated by the central government, further optimize the business environment, strengthen property rights protection and strengthen financing support in supporting the real economy and promoting the development of small and medium-sized enterprises and private enterprises, and enhance entrepreneurs’ confidence. Although some achievements have been made in these areas, we will continue to increase our efforts.
From the perspective of infrastructure investment, in the first three quarters, infrastructure investment increased by 4.5%, and the growth rate rebounded. Mao Shengyong analyzed that since the beginning of this year, the central government has increased the scale of local special debts and allocated the progress ahead of schedule. In the process of issuing local special bonds, the central government or relevant departments have considered the local debt tolerance. In the next step, through the issuance of special bonds, I hope to better promote private capital to do a good job in infrastructure construction together. With the active participation of social capital, infrastructure investment has a good rebound momentum.
Mao Shengyong said that consumption is the final demand, and if there is final demand, it needs supply. To form supply, it is necessary to increase investment. Investment is an important variable of consumption and an important content of supply. For example, increasing investment in infrastructure and public services will not only increase investment itself, but also expand consumption and improve people’s living standards; If an enterprise expands its investment in reproduction, it can increase its supply capacity and improve its supply level. Enterprises can improve the quality and level of supply system and promote technological progress by increasing investment in equipment renewal and technological transformation. Therefore, expanding effective investment can not only expand demand, but also expand supply level, improve supply quality, optimize supply structure, promote technological progress and promote transformation and upgrading. No matter from the demand side or the supply side, the investment potential and space in China is still huge. (Economic Daily China Economic Net reporter Lin Huocan)